The end of search?! The end of Google?!
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Before we dive into this piece, I’ve had a few VCs hit me up this week, offering the chance for you to invest in their funds. If you’re interested, just shoot me a reply to this email. Of course, I’ll be doing a deep dive on the deal first.
Have you ever stopped to count how many times you Google something in a day? Yeah, me neither… until last Thursday at BPI’s BIG event when a German investor asked me that exact question. He wanted to know how many times a day I used Google Search and how my usage had changed over the past six months.
At the time, I wasn’t quite sure how to answer - caught me a little off guard, to be honest. We moved on quickly, though - BIG isn’t really the place for deep dives.
But that question stuck with me all weekend, and here we are, Tuesday morning, ready to talk about… the end of Search!?
The Evolution of Search
A few months ago, Josh Miller (CEO of The Browser Company) convinced me to switch my default search engine from Google to Perplexity. At first, I was skeptical. I kept going back to Google here and there, but then something clicked.
I realized I have two types of searches: one where I’m just looking for a specific website and one where I need actual information. For the first type, I stayed loyal to Google. But for the second, Perplexity won me over… until Arc Search came along (more on that in a bit).
Here’s the kicker: my website searches are pretty repetitive. So, my search engine (Arc, in this case) quickly picked up on my habits and started delivering results in a snap. The result? I haven’t opened Google in over a month.
And it seems like I’m not the only one. According to the Wall Street Journal, Google could lose more than 50% of its online ad market share within the next 10 years. I tend to be an early adopter, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this shift catches on more broadly.
The Future of Search
What does the future of search look like? A while ago, I wouldn’t have been able to tell you. But then I put down my laptop and picked up my phone to do a search… and boom, Arc Search entered the scene. It’s a game-changer (and no, this isn’t sponsored by Josh).
Arc Search is Arc’s mobile app, designed to become your default mobile search engine. It offers two interfaces: one like Google and one like Perplexity, but better. Yeah, I said better because it’s hands down the best search UX I’ve ever seen. But hey, don’t take my word for it - try it yourself and see.
On my end, when I realized that after just three uses, Arc Search had me grabbing my phone instead of my laptop to search for something, I thought: Whoa! This is the future.
The End of Google?
And here’s where I take a little risk: I genuinely think we’re witnessing the end of Google Search, just like how Nokia collapsed when the iPhone arrived. Alphabet won’t vanish, but like any massive company, drastic reinvention isn’t in its nature. Google will lose market share, be forced to reinvent itself, and inevitably see its value drop.
In five years, we’ll look at Google the way we look at Yahoo today - an outdated relic of the past.
Sure, they’ve tried to shake things up with Gemini - I even have it pinned in my tabs - but I never use it. The product just isn’t up to snuff. The only way forward for them would be to take a huge gamble: automatically redirect Google Search traffic to Gemini, forcing users to change. But that’s a massive risk, especially with no solid business model to back it.
The Money Problem
People often say money isn’t an issue when you’ve got a great product, but here’s the real question: how do you monetize Perplexity, Arc Search, or even Gemini? No one’s cracked the code yet.
Ads? Forget it. That would bias the AI running behind the scenes and completely kill the value of these new search models.
A paid model? Would I be willing to pay for it? For Perplexity? Nope, the UX is just terrible. But Arc Search? Absolutely, without hesitation. But then, how do you drive adoption if users have to pay upfront? Do you wait for network effects to kick in, then hit them with a subscription fee and risk frustrating everyone?
I don’t have all the answers. But one thing’s for sure: Search is going to completely reinvent itself in the coming years, and in no time, we’ll be laughing at the idea of using Google Search.
And What About Alphabet?
Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) seems dead set on going after Alphabet. We’ll see how that plays out, but if the deal between Apple and Google falls through, that’ll open the floodgates, and Google’s reign will crumble. If Alphabet gets broken up, they’ll lose their network effect, and their value will plummet.
To wrap it up, I’ll say this: economic rent is never a good thing because it stifles innovation. And one of innovation’s purposes is to destroy those rents.
With that, have an awesome week, and drop me a comment below to tell me whether you agree or not!
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this was a great post! I am currently obsessed with search and arc, thanks to your recommendation is now on my devices. It is a beautiful and brilliant app. I hope they open their api so others can write products ontop of what they have built. That would be a great way for them to monetize their products and allow others to share in their innovative products.