Trump Elected: What’s the Global Tech Impact?
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The results are in: Trump is back, clinching over 270 electoral votes. One big question is looming over the global tech scene and investors alike: what’s this election going to mean for the global tech ecosystem? No political debates here, no social analyses – we’re diving straight into the tech and economic implications.
Tech Under Biden: The Pressure Cooker
Since Biden entered the White House, American tech has been grinding its gears. The SEC ramped up its surveillance on the GAFAMs, while the FTC made IPOs tougher to pull off. The result? Slowed growth, more roadblocks for giants, and delayed capital returns for investors. Venture Capital is taking a hit, and exits are getting rarer by the day.
Keeping startups in portfolios for 20 years is becoming the new normal, and for 10-year funds, that’s a big stretch… Returns are stuck in limbo, exits are rare – and that’s where Trump steps in. With his promises of deregulation and an economic boost, there’s hope that the industry can finally see light at the end of the tunnel.
Silicon Valley & Republicans: The Unlikely Alliance
Over the past few weeks, an unexpected alliance has taken shape: Musk, Sacks, the Winklevoss twins, Andreessen, Horowitz... all aligning with Trump and breaking away from Silicon Valley’s traditionally pro-Democrat stance. What’s their goal? To build a less restrictive playground, boost growth, multiply exits, pump up crypto, and protect U.S. innovation from international rivals – particularly from China and Europe. For these leaders, the priority is real economic performance (think more exits for VCs…) and unleashing innovation’s full potential.
A Trump-Led Tech Renaissance?
M&A and IPOs: The Exit Machine Starts Up Again
Trump is shaking things up at the SEC and FTC, with plans to replace their current heads. The objective? To greenlight mega deals in tech, reenergizing M&A and opening up exit opportunities for startups and funds eager to deliver returns.
And there’s more: Trump’s got IPO deregulation on the agenda too, making it easier for startups to take the leap onto the stock market. This shakeup should pump up the entire funding chain, enticing LPs to invest and fueling fundraising. 2025 could be a record-breaking year for funds raised by GPs, complete with fresh success stories to sell. It's a dream come true for funds chasing those big returns.
Crypto: The New American El Dorado
Backed by Musk and other tech heavyweights, Trump wants the U.S. to become the safe haven for cryptocurrency, especially Bitcoin. With crypto-friendly tax policies and looser regulations, the U.S. would become the place for crypto investors. The immediate effect? Bitcoin’s value shoots up, and there’s a fresh wave of capital for blockchain and DeFi (decentralized finance) projects – a much-needed boost.
Trump even aims to integrate crypto into public investment strategies, drawing LPs further toward riskier assets like Venture Capital. The entire value chain is in for a shakeup!
AI and Cybersecurity: The New Strategic Priorities
AI and cybersecurity also stand to gain from this pro-innovation, rapid-execution approach.
For AI: Trump is looking to ease data access and lift restrictions on usage, giving American companies a serious advantage over Chinese and European competitors. The goal? Accelerate R&D and solidify the U.S. position in the global AI race. The U.S. is deregulating while China centralizes its data – who’ll scale first? And Europe ...
Cybersecurity: With international tensions, especially with China, Trump plans to boost public investment in cybersecurity to protect critical infrastructure. This is a golden opportunity for U.S - based cybersecurity startups, with local solutions ready to fill the gaps.
A Global Impact: Economic Play Goes Worldwide
Trump’s approach will resonate worldwide, affecting both developed economies and emerging markets. The economic battle is ramping up, and startups will need to adapt to stay in the game.
In Europe: More than ever, it’s critical to build international interdependence from day one. Capital? Set up in the U.S (Delaware) for optimal funding access. Workforce? Spread across Europe or Asia – Paris, London, Amsterdam, … for that work-life balance. Customers? Everywhere. Creating a global interdependence while avoiding over-reliance on one region is now essential.
In Developing Countries: A golden opportunity is opening up to grow local tech ecosystems! With the U.S. turning inward, these countries can seize the chance to build their own innovation hubs and tap into their regional potential. It brings to mind my piece on VC in Africa – opportunities are massive, and now’s the time to go for it.
A New Era for Global Innovation?
This election marks a pivotal moment for the global tech landscape. Deregulation, crypto support, protectionism, and escalating economic tensions are reshaping the global tech ecosystem.
The U.S. could well become an even bigger haven for tech and financial innovation, while Europe, Asia, and emerging markets can seize the chance to position themselves as strategic alternatives – if they can shape a strong political vision. In this volatile environment, startups and investors will need to stay agile to turn these shifts into opportunities.
Now, more than ever, mastering the art of playing the geopolitical game to your advantage is essential. Interdependence should be our mantra to avoid being mere spectators of these shifts and, instead, profit from them fully.
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