VC in 2024-2025: An Odyssey Between Crisis and Renewal
It’s been a few weeks since we last spoke — I’ve missed it. But time has been slipping through my fingers. So, to make up for it, let’s create some synergy! Lately, I’ve been deep in advisory missions, working on setting up Corporate Venture Capital (CVC) arms and integrating VC funds into unit-linked insurance accounts in France for major insurers and institutional players.
So let me take you on a journey — my journey, my daily grind…
📌 PART 1: THE TWILIGHT OF A GOLDEN AGE (2024, THE YEAR OF THE GREAT AWAKENING)
There was a time when everything felt possible. A time when funding rounds followed one another in a frenzy, and investors signed checks like poets drunk on their own audacity. 2021 was the year of pure illusion. Everything could be funded. Everything had a valuation. Everything was up for grabs.
Then came the crash. GVentures collapsed — but it wasn’t the only one.
2022 was the first warning shot for the ecosystem, 2023 was a red flag, and 2024... a brutal wake-up call. Like a party that went on too long, venture capital woke up with the worst hangover in its recent history.
And the numbers don’t lie.
📉 A Global Funding Contraction
US: VC funds raised only $100 billion, a -15% YoY drop
Europe: Similar contraction, with €53.3 billion raised, down -10% YoY
France: Startups still managed to raise €7.1 billion, but the number of funding rounds plummeted by -18%
UK: $16.2 billion invested, maintaining its European leadership, but at a slower pace
Valuations, once stratospheric, have come back down to earth. Startups now need to justify every euro they raise, show real traction, and prove rock-solid metrics. Investors are no longer seduced by grand narratives — they demand results.
We are witnessing VC’s transition from an MBA fever dream to a more private-equity-driven, adult world.
🔥 Winners and Losers: The Natural Selection of VC
In this reshaped ecosystem, two worlds are colliding.
🎖️ The Winners: AI and Climate Tech
→ Artificial Intelligence is the undisputed champion of VC.
US: AI investments skyrocketed +52% to $38 billion
France: 27% of all VC funds in 2024 flowed into AI startups, solidifying Paris as a global AI hub — with Mistral AI, Hugging Face, and Poolside now competing with U.S. giants
→ Climate Tech, despite a -29% decline in France, remains a long-term bet. Investors are pushing startups to move beyond concepts to full industrialization —firms like Asterion Ventures are leading the charge.
💀 The Losers: Fintech and SaaS Under Pressure
→ Fintech, once the darling of VC, is now under a ruthless due diligence microscope. No more absurd CACs (Customer Acquisition Costs) or sketchy unit economics.
→SaaS must pivot to hyper-automation. Startups that don’t deliver an immediate ROI are struggling to raise. You either built your company on the right KPIs — with a solid CAC and a path to positive EBITDA — or you’re heading straight into a wall.
💣 The Explosion of the "Cash Burn" Myth
Once glorified, burn rate has become a deadly poison.
🔥 In 2021, burning cash was the key to growth — just spend and raise at the next valuation.
🧊 In 2024, investors demand something real. The era of naïve adolescence is over. Welcome to the adult world.
Startups that burn more cash than they generate are now radioactive. They can no longer raise — or if they do, it’s on brutal terms. To survive, they must cut costs, pivot, and refocus on healthy margins.
Down rounds are everywhere. Some of the most celebrated unicorns, once valued in the billions, are seeing their price tags slashed by three, five, even ten times — a brutal blow to portfolio valuations and founders' net worth.
2024 leaves no room for illusions.
📉 A VC Industry Starved for Exits: The Great Liquidity Crisis
The biggest problem in 2024? A lack of exits.
📊 Some sobering numbers:
Only 3.6% of exits accounted for 78.9% of total market value
Few IPOs, fewer major acquisitions, and a secondary market in turmoil, where funds scramble to offload stakes before the collapse
Machiavellian maneuvers everywhere, as VCs try to salvage portfolio valuations
🔥 The billion-dollar question: Where did the liquidity go?
Without exits, LPs get cold feet. Without fresh capital, VC funds themselves feel the squeeze. The result? Investors are more selective than ever, and LPs keep their cash locked up.
💡 2024: A Year of Reckoning
This year has taught us some harsh but necessary lessons:
✅ Raising funds is no longer enough. Profitability matters — the right KPIs must be there from Day One.
✅ Investors are flocking to sectors with clear long-term potential and massive adoption (AI, Climate Tech).
✅ Exits are the key to recovery. Without them, the entire VC engine stalls, and LPs start worrying.
✅ Startups must adapt — or die. The game has changed. There are no alternatives.
2024 is the year of the great awakening, a transition from speculative madness to a new era of venture capital.
But what happens in 2025? Who will survive this storm?
That’s where the story gets fascinating.
Because in VC, getting in is one thing. But knowing how to get out? That’s where the real game begins. 🚀
📌 PART 2: THE AGE OF SELECTION (2025, THE YEAR OF THE GREAT FILTER)
The silence after a storm is always chilling. It paralyzes some and invigorates others. I belong to the second category — no doubt about it.
In 2024, VC went through a purge. The ground was littered with the remnants of a golden age: fallen unicorns, startups desperately seeking liquidity, investors who had forgotten what real losses felt like.
But life always finds a way.
If 2024 was the year of disillusionment, 2025 will be the year of selection. The market has learned its lesson. Money no longer flows to the loudest voices, but to those who prove their worth — with hard numbers.
Welcome to the era of Darwinian selection — the true adulthood of venture capital.
📉 THE BATTLEFRONT: LIQUIDITY
In venture capital, cash flow is everything. A VC invests in a startup, hoping to exit a few years later with a juicy multiple — to perform the "LP belly dance" and keep the capital cycle alive.
But in 2024, exits were a nightmare — and let’s just say the dance wasn’t graceful.
📊 The numbers speak for themselves:
Only 3.6% of exits accounted for 78.9% of total market value — meaning most VC-backed startups remain stuck in portfolios.
IPOs have practically vanished in Europe, except for a few rare exceptions in AI and biotech.
The secondary market is exploding, with investors scrambling to offload shares before further devaluation — but the discounts are brutal.
🔥 The problem is systemic:
Without exits, LPs hesitate to reinvest. Without fresh capital, VC funds themselves start running out of oxygen.
In 2025, the only thing that matters is returning money. And this time, it’s not just some YouTuber fan saying it.
💡 HOW STARTUPS ARE ADAPTING
Founders have realized they can no longer rely on endless fundraising cycles and their favorite VCs to survive.
Three strategies are emerging:
1️⃣ From Growth to Profit: The Mandatory Shift
User acquisition is dead — immediate ROI is king.
The startups that thrive are those that convert customers fast and generate cash from Day One.
The era of ultra-deficit business models is over. No one is financing a company that burns $20M per month hoping for a hypothetical buyout.
🚀 What’s working:
Fintechs are pivoting to embedded finance with scalable, B2B-driven revenue models.
SaaS startups are automating everything, cutting HR costs and focusing on high-margin, low-touch solutions.
2️⃣ The Cost-Cutting War: Layoffs for Survival
In 2025, being lean isn’t optional — it’s a survival instinct.
🔥 Startups that master cost control will always have an edge. And that means focusing on the right KPIs — the ones that PE investors use — to stay grounded in reality.
Survival tactics:
Marketing spend slashed by 50-75%.
Headcounts shrinking — especially in sales and operations.
Every dollar spent is scrutinized for efficiency.
3️⃣ The Art of Fundraising in a Crisis
Raising capital is harder — but not impossible.
💰 What’s changed:
Investors demand stricter terms: lower dilution, anti-dilution clauses, and a clear path to profitability.
Smaller checks, milestone-based rounds. Instead of $50M upfront, startups raise in tranches, unlocking capital only when hitting key objectives.
Founders must understand VC economics inside-out — negotiating funding rounds is now a high-stakes chess game.
📢 Lesson learned: In 2025, fundraising is an art of precision. Only the best storytellers, backed by flawless metrics, will succeed.
📊 THE NEW KINGS OF VENTURE CAPITAL
The 2024 purge didn’t just wipe out startups — it reshaped VC itself. Some funds collapsed, others evolved.
🥇 The winners of 2025:
1️⃣ Venture Debt Funds: The New Era
Venture debt is now mainstream — why?
Startups refuse to sell equity at depressed valuations — they prefer debt over dilution.
Venture debt funds explode in popularity, offering startups an alternative to predatory down rounds.
This funding model is shifting the power balance, forcing startups to think like real businesses rather than cash-burning machines.
2️⃣ The Secondary Market: The New Gold Mine
🚨 Problem: Many investors are stuck in illiquid positions with no clear exits.
💡 Solution: Secondary funds are scooping up distressed assets at bargain prices, betting on long-term rebounds.
2025 marks the rise of secondary funds — turning private VC into a miniature Wall Street.
Behind closed doors, massive portfolio discounts are happening. The game is being played in the shadows.
3️⃣ Evergreen Funds: A More Sustainable (NotGreen) Model
Traditional VC funds have a 5-10 year lifecycle, forcing them to sell assets on a fixed timeline.
Evergreen funds, however, have no expiration date.
This means:
✅ Long-term plays, no pressure to exit prematurely.
✅ More flexibility to invest in cycles, rather than chase hype.
Ever wondered what a secondary evergreen fund would look like — run by restructuring specialists? Well, 2025 might just be the year we find out.
🔥 2025: THE YEAR THE NEW RULES ARE SET
This is the new VC reality:
✅ The “cash burn” era is over. Investors want revenue, not promises.
✅ Raising funds is a high-stakes game. A strong deck won’t cut it — you need real results.
✅ The VC landscape is shifting: venture debt, secondary markets, and evergreen funds are taking center stage.
✅ Exits remain a challenge, but funds are adapting with new liquidity strategies.
🚀 What Comes Next?
2025 is a transition year — toward a new way of investing, innovating, and creating value.
But the biggest question remains: What happens after?
💰 The capital is still there.
💡 The innovations are still coming.
VC is cyclical. And after every winter… comes a rebirth.
What will the next frontier of investing look like post-2025? Which emerging markets will capture capital? What technologies will reshape the world by 2030?
The answers? We’re about to find out… right now. 🚀
📌 PART 3: THE DAWN OF A NEW ERA (WHAT COMES AFTER 2025?)
If 2024 was the year of chaos, and 2025 the year of reckoning, then the post-2025 era will be one of renewal. A world reinvented — where the rules of the game have changed, only the most resilient have survived, and new forces, once barely perceptible, are now shaping the future.
In this final chapter, we dive deep into the future of VC, exploring the macro trends, the next tectonic shifts, and the emerging markets that will redefine the tech and financial landscape.
🚀 What will venture capital look like by 2030?
🌍 Which markets will attract the most capital?
🛠 Which technologies will shape the next generation of unicorns?
Buckle up. The future starts now.
🌎 THE FUTURE OF VENTURE CAPITAL: A SYSTEM IN METAMORPHOSIS
Pre-2021 VC was a volume game — raise fast, deploy fast, exit fast.
Post-2025 VC will be a precision game — betting on the right macro trends, structuring more complex deals, and managing liquidity differently.
1️⃣ Venture Capital Will Never Be the Same: The End of "Fast Money"
Funding cycles will never return to the hyper-frenzied pace of the early 2020s. There will be fewer deals — but they will be smarter.
📌 Three major shifts will define the next decade:
Longer investment horizons – Startups will need to demonstrate real traction and profitability before unlocking large-scale funding.
Milestone-driven funding rounds – Instead of raising $100M upfront, companies will secure capital in progressive stages, tied to performance benchmarks.
Hybrid funding models – Venture debt, secondary buyouts, and private equity will become standard components of the startup funding stack.
📊 The data reflects this shift:
Venture debt investments have surged +60% since 2024.
The secondary market is booming — VCs are selling off stakes rather than waiting for uncertain IPOs.
Evergreen and secondary-focused funds are attracting major US investors, offering long-term stability and superior portfolio management expertise.
💡 THE SECTORS THAT WILL DOMINATE POST-2025
Every crisis is followed by a new wave of empires.
The dot-com bubble of the early 2000s paved the way for Google and Amazon.
The 2008 financial crisis set the stage for Uber, Airbnb, and Stripe.
So, which industries will dominate after 2025?
1️⃣ AI: From Hype to Critical Infrastructure
By 2024, AI was still a rapidly expanding industry. By 2025 and beyond, it will be the backbone of everything.
💡 Key transformations:
AI will no longer be a product — it will be a foundational layer across industries.
Companies without AI integration will be seen as obsolete.
Multi-agent AI systems and embedded AI will replace first-gen models like GPT-3o and GPT-4.
🚀 This means:
SaaS startups will become fully AI-native, automating 90% of previously human-managed tasks — drastically boosting EBITDA.
Industrial firms will become autonomous factories, cutting costs and increasing efficiency at unprecedented levels.
AI-powered healthcare will revolutionize diagnostics and treatment, pushing HealthTech investment to all-time highs.
📊 Projections:
Global AI market to hit $1.5T by 2030.
AI-native startups will attract over 50% of VC funding by 2028.
2️⃣ Climate Tech: Technology as Humanity’s Last Line of Defense
Climate change is no longer an ESG buzzword — it’s an existential necessity.
🔍 The most promising segments:
Decentralized energy storage – Batteries, hydrogen, nuclear fusion.
Carbon capture and reuse – Turning CO₂ into valuable raw materials.
Regenerative agriculture – AI-powered food production with IoT-driven precision.
📊 Key figures:
Climate Tech funds will manage over $200B by 2030.
Governments are becoming LPs, accelerating industrial transformation.
🌍 THE NEW FRONTIERS OF VC: WHERE THE SMART MONEY FLOWS
VC is no longer a US-Europe duopoly.
The next billion-dollar opportunities are emerging elsewhere.
💡 Three regions are becoming the new battlegrounds:
1️⃣ India: The Next Global VC Hub
Explosive middle-class growth.
A booming SaaS export industry.
A tech ecosystem inspired by Silicon Valley — but more agile and cost-effective.
2️⃣ Africa: The Last Great Market Opportunity
A hyper-connected youth population.
Fintech solutions solving fundamental needs (mobile payments, credit access).
Massive AgriTech and EnergyTech potential.
3️⃣ The Middle East: Unlimited Capital, Bold Bets
Sovereign wealth funds pouring billions into startups and VC.
A high-stakes playground for AI, Fintech, and DeepTech.
🔮 VENTURE CAPITAL IN 2030: A QUIET REVOLUTION
We've examined the past, dissected the present, and now it’s time to project forward.
📌 The new reality of VC in 2030:
✅ A hybrid model blending venture debt, equity, and secondary markets.
✅ Longer investment cycles, less risk, but greater selectivity.
✅ Less US-centric, more globalized.
✅ A new generation of unicorns born from AI, space tech, and biotech.
🏆 CONCLUSION: THE NEW WORLD OF VENTURE CAPITAL
Venture capital never dies — it evolves, mutates, reinvents itself.
Between 2024 and 2025, we witnessed its transformation from an era of hype to an era of resilience and intelligence.
In the coming years, VC will remain the engine of global innovation—but with new rules of the game.
🔥 The investors and entrepreneurs who understand this paradigm shift will thrive.
🔥 The power players are evolving — VC firms are onboarding younger talent to adapt to shifting market dynamics.
📢 WELCOME TO VENTURE CAPITAL 3.0
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Because in this game, information is the ultimate currency.
And who knows? It might just change both our lives. 🚀
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